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EDITORIALS
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Even The US Government Will Abandon The Dollar Jeff Berwick
2014-04-16 06:06:42.0
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Marc Faber : China's Colossal Credit Bubble Is Deflating MarcFaberBlog
2014-04-16 05:45:46.0
??Marc Faber, managing director and founder of Marc Faber Ltd.
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Are Stock Market & U.S. Dollar About to Crash? Will Gold Be the Major Benefactor? Lorimer Wilson
2014-04-15 23:58:07.0
Something is clearly out of whack.
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US Monetary Inflation Slowdown Steve Saville
2014-04-15 22:45:51.0
US Monetary Inflation SlowdownBelow is an excerpt ??from a commentary originally posted at
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Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Silver and Miners Still Disappoint Sunshine Profits
2014-04-15 22:17:24.0
Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Silver and Miners Still Disappoint Gold & Silver Trading Alert originally published on April 15th, 2014 5:52 AM: Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver, and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
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END OF DAY COMMENTS goldscents
2014-04-15 22:17:24.0
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Gold Futures Halted Again On Latest Furious Slamdown Jason Hamlin
2014-04-15 21:10:31.0
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6 Perennial Vegetables To Plant Once martenson
2014-04-15 18:41:18.0
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Zeal Speculator 4.15.2014 zealllc
2014-04-15 17:11:22.0
Weekly subscription newsletter.
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Gold Price Consolidation Hard Assets Investor
2014-04-15 15:59:04.0
Gold prices are stabilizing here, says CPM Group analyst Rohit Savant.
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What Were We Thinking? The Mogambo Guru
2014-04-15 15:52:27.0
Imagine making Alan Greenspan chairman of the Fed.
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Out of the Stocks, Into the Miners The Gold Report
2014-04-15 15:52:27.0
When the stockmarket crashes, will investors take refuge in gold stocks.
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The Old D.C. Trick Dr Ron Paul
2014-04-15 15:45:42.0
Washington's budget doesn't cut or even slow spending.
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Argonaut Gold Produces 30,963 Au-eq oz in Q1 2014, an Increase of 4% Over Prior Year Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
2014-04-15 15:01:41.0
Toronto, Ontario ' (April 15, 2014) Argonaut Gold Inc.
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America's Most Bizarre Taxes Kate Incontrera
2014-04-15 14:43:00.0
1) Candy TaxIn 2009, Illinois issued a tax on candy sales.
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Silver COT Charts Jordan Roy-Byrne, CMT
2014-04-15 14:21:07.0
Here are four charts that breakdown the Silver COT.
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A Simple Way to Sidestep High-Frequency Traders Chris Mayer
2014-04-15 14:15:03.0
I was in Las Vegas last week for the Value Investing Congress.
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Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Silver and Miners Still Disappoint SunshineProfits
2014-04-15 13:51:33.0
Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver, and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
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Doing It for Science martenson
2014-04-15 13:21:44.0
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DAILY COMMENTARY FOR APR. 15 goldscents
2014-04-15 12:41:58.0
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LATEST NEWS
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PRECIOUS-Gold steadies above $1,300/oz, supported by Ukraine tensions
Wed, 16 Apr 2014 02:39:31 -0700
* Gold steadies near 200-day moving average at $1,300 * Ukraine tensions counterbalance weak demand, technicals * Chinese appetite for gold muted despite price drop (Updates throughout, changes dateline, previous SINGAPORE) By Jan Harvey LONDON, April 16 (Reuters) - Gold prices steadied on Wednesday after falling nearly 2 percent in the previous session, underpinned by escalating tensions in ...
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The real value of Australia's most politically costly wine
Wed, 16 Apr 2014 00:07:34 -0700
It was a wine made in secret, and it's whereabouts is now a mystery, but one thing is for certain - if Barry O'Farrell's lost bottle of 1959 Penfold's Grange ever turns up, it could be worth a lot more than $3000.
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Wine specials this week
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 21:01:00 -0700
ONGOINGPalm Beach First-Growth Wine Club, once a month, members meet at a Palm Beach restaurant and split the cost of a first-growth wine and share a meal.
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Why Gold and Silver Are Losing Their Luster
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 19:02:48 -0700
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Wine: the trouble with Ch??teauneuf-du-Pape
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 15:19:07 -0700
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3 Gold and Silver Mining Mutual Funds To Buy Now
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 14:29:46 -0700
Increases in prices of the yellow metal or silver will benefit miners. So, it looks an opportune moment for investors to add some gold and silver mining mutual funds in their portfolios.
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Gold Sees Surprising Sell Off; Profit Taking, Sell Stops, Asian Demand Worries Blamed
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 13:29:46 -0700
(Kitco News) - Gold prices finished the U.S. day session with sharp losses Tuesday, but did close up from their daily lows. The market was pressured by profit taking from the shorter-term traders and by sell stop orders being triggered in the futures market to accelerate the price downdraft. June gold [...]
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Gold price plunges by nearly 2 per cent
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 13:21:35 -0700
Gold tumbled about 2 percent on Tuesday on heavy stop-loss orders placed by momentum traders as prices broke below the key 200-day moving average.
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Gold & Silver Market Morning
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 10:22:15 -0700
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Gold Falls on Signs of Improving U.S. Economy, Ukraine Tensions Fail to Add Support
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 10:04:24 -0700
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold prices were tumbling Tuesday as strong U.S. retail sales data from offset escalation in Ukraine. Gold for June delivery at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange was dropping $23.30 to $1,304.20 an ounce. The gold price traded as high as $1,328.40 and as low as $1,284.40 an ounce, while the spot price was falling $23.80, or 1.8%. Retail sales for ...
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Gold Melts Down as China Shuns the Yellow Metal: StockTwits
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 08:57:05 -0700
NEW YORK (TheStreet) -- Gold melted down Tuesday. And a majority of investors on StockTwits.com say the charts show that the yellow metal will continue to soften. as $GDX tanks today, $JNUG loses its grip below $20 --> $NUGT still above $35...for now. $GLD below the 200day SMA. More pain for #goldbugs? -- ETFdb (@ETFdb) Apr. 15 at 09:58 AM // ETFs that track the price of gold and gold miners ...
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First Majestic Announces US$30M Forward Sale Contract on Lead Production
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 08:57:00 -0700
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Gold Sharply Lower On Profit Taking, Sell Stops, Firmer U.S. Dollar
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 05:57:11 -0700
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Gold's rebound to peter out in second half on growth recovery - Reuters Poll
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 05:51:36 -0700
Gold is set to end 2014 just above $1,250 an ounce as an acceleration in U.S. economic growth and strength in the dollar cool the price advance seen in the first quarter, a Reuters survey showed on Tuesday. The poll of 28 analysts and consultants returned an average gold price forecast of $1,262.50 an ounce for the third quarter and $1,254.20 in the last three months of the year. Prices are up ...
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SilverCrest Announces Q1 Production; 201,101 Ounces Silver and 7,545 Ounces Gold
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 05:23:08 -0700
SilverCrest Mines Inc. is pleased to announce silver and gold production numbers for the first quarter of 2014 from its 100% owned Santa Elena Mine located in Sonora, Mexico. For additional information ...
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Can gold confound the markets and hit $1,400?
Tue, 15 Apr 2014 01:48:23 -0700
Gold will remain a strong safe-haven bet in spite of its recent seesawing price as the Ukraine crisis and expectations of a further pullback in U.S.
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
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Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
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Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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