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EDITORIALS
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US Government Can Kill US Citizens, But Not Strip Their Citizenship joconnell
2014-04-23 06:47:39.0
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The Big Currency Reset The Gold Report
2014-04-23 04:50:39.0
Buying gold & silver miners in anticipation of "the big reset".
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More War Needed Bill Bonner
2014-04-23 04:43:56.0
America's last 2 adventures were so successful, we should go into Ukraine.
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Gold in Crisis Doug Casey
2014-04-23 04:11:38.0
A study of prices during the Syria, then Ukraine crises, plus the real crisis facing US investors.
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Questions You May Have Asked Yourself ciovaccocapital.com
2014-04-22 20:32:16.0
Article Will Be Posted Wednesday Morning AnsweringWhy have stocks performed in a manner that seems to be out of step with the relatively slow pace of economic expansion?Why has the economic recovery failed to gain traction, even though the peak of the financial crisis occurred almost six years ago?Are policymakers inflating bubbles again?Will the markets revert back to the bust portion of the boom-and-bust cycle we have been in since 1997?
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Silver About To Move Higher and S&P Lower Gary Christenson
2014-04-22 18:02:26.0
Silver has had three bad years while the S&P has had five good years.
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Dubai Global Gold Centre On Continuing Bullion Demand David Levenstein
2014-04-22 17:14:56.0
Even though the price of gold has fallen below the psychological level of $1330 an ounce, and while the mainstream media continues with its consistently negative coverage, demand for physical gold remains extremely robust in certain regions.
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A Simple Strategy for Investing in the US Energy Boom Byron King
2014-04-22 17:14:49.0
'There are no dry holes,' the man said.
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Zeal Speculator 4.22.2014 zealllc
2014-04-22 17:13:29.0
Weekly subscription newsletter.
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Dr.Copper Looking Grim The Gold Report
2014-04-22 15:19:40.0
Copper getting pathological, suffering from SAD.
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Bitcoin Trading Alert: Lack of Action but Not of Signals SunshineProfits
2014-04-22 14:26:14.0
If you're in a hurry: we still support short speculative positions in the Bitcoin market.
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Gold & Silver Trading Alert: Action in Platinum SunshineProfits
2014-04-22 14:19:30.0
Briefly: In our opinion speculative short positions (full) in gold, silver, and mining stocks are justified from the risk/reward perspective.
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The Traffic Jam That Kills Thousands of People Every Day Juan Enriquez
2014-04-22 13:58:33.0
Let me talk to you about traffic jams.
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Daily Commentary for Apr. 22 goldscents
2014-04-22 13:23:43.0
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When Every Country Wants to Sell, Who Buys? martenson
2014-04-22 13:18:10.0
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Why Demand Will Become Even More Scarce martenson
2014-04-22 13:18:10.0
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In The News Today Jim Sinclair
2014-04-22 12:56:25.0
Washington's Corruption and Mendacity Is What Makes America 'Exceptional' Paul Craig Roberts World events permitting, I am going to take a few days off.
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New and Unexpected Ways to Fund Long-Term Care Expenses Jamie Hopkins
2014-04-22 12:23:55.0
Too many people think that long-term care planning is just a decision about whether to purchase long-term care insurance.
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Beware the Barrage of New Tech IPOs Greg Guenthner
2014-04-22 12:03:55.0
We've been operating in a market overzealous about new tech firms flashing nifty names and exciting stories.
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Marc Faber: Frontier Markets vs. Emerging Markets MarcFaberBlog
2014-04-22 10:06:32.0
ETF.
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LATEST NEWS
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Gold steadies above 2-1/2 month low as dollar, stocks ease
Wed, 23 Apr 2014 03:30:44 -0700
Gold steadied on Wednesday above a 2-1/2 month low hit the previous session, as a softer tone to equities and the dollar helped arrest its slide above a key chart level, but demand from investors and retail buyers remained slack. It found support at its 100-day moving average at $1,277 an ounce, however, as European shares eased after three days of gains as data showing China's economy was still ...
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Rising US Yields Push Gold Price towards April Low, $1277 Tipping Point
Wed, 23 Apr 2014 00:00:00 -0700
Rising US Yields Push Gold Price towards April Low, $1277 Tipping Point
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Exile in Mayfair: millionaire Yevgeny Chichvarkin's new life in London
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 23:08:34 -0700
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Gold futures price hits 3-week low
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 18:25:04 -0700
New York June gold Futures fell US$7.4/oz, or 0.6%, to US$1281.1, with 0.2% gain in electronic tradi...
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Wine Talk: When in Beaune
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 15:22:42 -0700
Inside the largely intact ramparts of this relatively sleepy village of 20,000, there are four restaurants with at least one Michelin star. Outside the city walls there are several more.
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Gold May Target $1,300 Ahead Of Options Expiry; Light Volume May Diminish Correlation
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 14:22:48 -0700
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Questions for Wine Industry Conference speakers
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 14:08:20 -0700
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Wine events in Palm Beach county
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 10:33:56 -0700
ONGOINGPalm Beach First-Growth Wine Club, once a month, members meet at a Palm Beach restaurant and split the cost of a first-growth wine and share a meal.
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Gold eases for 4th day as investors exit bullion funds
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 07:30:48 -0700
Gold extended losses for a fourth straight day on Tuesday as outflows from physical gold funds pointed to weak investment appetite, though a retreat in the dollar took some pressure off prices. Spot gold was down 0.1 percent at $1,287.50 an ounce at 1400 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for June delivery were down 60 cents an ounce at $1,287.90.
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"Enormous potential" for agriculture funds
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 04:52:12 -0700
Buy land, said Mark Twain, they ain't making it any more. He also observed that one of the secrets of success in life is to eat what you like and let the food fight it out inside. Taken together, these two aphorisms go a long way to explaining the appeal of investment in agriculture. The world may not be making any more land but it's certainly making more people, and increasingly many millions ...
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Juiced: How to Make Mass-Produced Wine Taste Great
Tue, 22 Apr 2014 04:01:01 -0700
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Playing gold? Keep an eye on silver
Mon, 21 Apr 2014 17:45:05 -0700
Gold prices fell to a near-three-week low on Monday amid sharp exchange traded fund outflows, continuing to erode mild gains posted in the first quarter of 2014. For those with an eye on silver the erosion ...
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All prices are in ZAR Most prices are for 6 bottle cases Some prices are for 12 bottles Delivery in SA & VAT included
Mon, 21 Apr 2014 15:09:47 -0700
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China bottle tech checks smash fake wine market
Mon, 21 Apr 2014 14:46:14 -0700
Counterfeiting wine is a big and lucrative business in China, with increasingly more sophisticated methods used to replicate famous brands.
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Gold Price at Risk Near-Term on a Return of USDollar Strength?
Mon, 21 Apr 2014 12:11:31 -0700
-Gold at risk of deeper correction on a return of USDollar strength.
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Wine: is Napa cabernet sauvignon worth its price tag?
Mon, 21 Apr 2014 10:33:18 -0700
While some Napa cab sav is over-oaked and over-priced, the very best examples the region has to offer stand comparison with the finest of fine wine. Hence the cost It's easy to get fixed ideas about a particular type of wine: that Aussie chardonnays are full of blowsy tropical fruit flavours, say (they're not, but I'll tackle that another time); or that Napa cabernet sauvignon is over-oaked and ...
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LATEST FROM BLOG
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How to use the Commitment of Traders Report?
Wed, 19 Jun 2013 18:08:00 GMT
The Commitment of Traders report (COT report) is a weekly report, which is issued on every Friday by Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This report contains the details of the positions of all the market participants. Every report that comes on Friday contains the data as of the preceding Tuesday.
The role of CFTC is to Commodities Future & Options market what SEC is to equity markets. The COT is a very handy, reliable and important report as it has good deal of data related to the market positions and trends of various trader groups. It is very useful in understanding the current and future market movements.
The structure of the COT report is detailed and it provides data segregated into different trader groups. The three main categories being: commercial traders, non-commercial traders and non-reportables.
Commercial Traders: They are the main players of the Commodity future markets. They are essentially hedgers and their trades are for actual delivery of the underlying asset. They have the largest positions in the markets and are big entities like Producers and users/consumers. They have the best knowledge of demand, supply & market movements etc. and enter into contracts as per their requirements and forecasts.
Non-commercial traders: They are also generally big traders but unlike the commercial traders, their positions are mostly for speculative profits. They enter a position with a view to make money and exit the position long before the due dates.
Non-reportables: This is the smallest group of traders and consists of individuals or other small entities that trade on speculative lines. Their holdings are individually too small to be required to report to CFTC and hence the name.
Over the years, CFTC has been providing the report with the aforesaid three categories of traders. But in the recent years, it has started providing disaggregated reports, further categorizing the traders. The picture below illustrates the disaggregated trader categories.
In the above classification, Swap dealers represent the Pension funds, endowments etc. These funds rather than directly trading in the future markets, work through the services of Swap dealers.
Basics of COT report
The COT report is a very valuable source of information, which can be used to get an idea of the future market movements and accordingly device a trading strategy. Let's take a sample COT report of Gold Futures dated 11th June and try to understand the basic data sets and their implications.
A gold future contract is of 100 Troy ounces and the above report is a part of the COT report on metals issued by CFTC on 14th of June, 2013. The report shows the category wise positions as on June 11th. In each category, the long and short positions represent the number of contracts held. The total open interest shows the sum of all contracts (both long & short), that have neither expired nor settled. From the above data, we can get the following perspectives about the current market conditions.
The total open interest is 373,844, which is marginally up by 783 from the previous week. This indicates a bit higher market participation. The benefit of an increased open interest is that a higher number of transactions take place increasing the liquidity. At the same time it also indicates better market conditions for trading and may be a sign of trend reversal.
The net position of Producers/Merchants category is still on the bearish side but compared to last week it shows increase of 3,251 in long contracts. Remember that this group has the best knowledge of the markets and they are bearish with slight movements towards bullish side of the fence. This movement towards long position may be short term or long term. Now if we look at the data of past few weeks, we will observe that there is a gradual increase in the long position of this group. The total extent of their short positions has been decreasing over the time. This may indicate a positive outlook for gold in the future.
The swap dealers reflect the same approach as far as the net position is considered.
Managed Money traders have a contrarian position. This may be due to the longer time frame that they generally target, eliminating the reflection of short-term market sentiments in their position.
Other reportable and the non-reportables are generally market followers. They are mostly in a position opposite to that of commercials. One thing that you should always avoid is to follow the trend of non-reportables.
The current COT report can further be compared to the past data and more inferences can be deduced. For example, if you compare the open interest with past data, you would see that it has been falling and has dropped quite low. Also this drop has somewhat stabilized over the past few weeks and it seems to be bottoming up. This indicates that a strong level of support for the gold prices may have been achieved and there are pretty good chances of a trend reversal.
Some takeaways
Now since you have some understanding of how to use COT report, you must keep the following points in mind while using it.
COT report comes with a time delay of 3 days. This is a dampening factor to the uses of the report in framing intraday and very short-term trade strategies.
The data content is excellent and reliable. This makes it a great source of getting market insights.
Further derivations of the COT report in the form index creation or indicators etc can further add to its utility.
Use other tools in combination with COT insights to validate your analysis.
COT report as such is of great value. No wonders why CFTC has to give in to the demands of weekly reports from the market participants, rather than the bi-monthly report that it used to provide in the past. That's all as of now. Happy trading!!!
From quantshare.com
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Gold and Silver Speculator Long Positions Wiped Out
Fri, 26 Apr 2013 21:17:00 GMT
Small speculators, also known as individual investors, have had their net long positions in gold and silver completely wiped out over the last two weeks. As of last Tuesday, these small investors held a mere 133 net long gold contracts, and 2163 net long silver contracts. As recently as September, when we turned cautious on the metals, small speculators held over 60,000 net long gold contracts and 20,000 silver contracts. If the small speculators were to sell anymore gold and silver, they would become net short.
Typically commercial banks manipulate prices on low volume to set the price and then trade at the newly set price in volume. The recent crash in gold and silver began after hours on a Friday, and was hit further by large sell orders Sunday night to take out the well known technical support lines of both metals. Most small retails investors were probably not even contacted by their futures broker. By the time they checked their account the next Monday Morning, either their protective stop orders were triggered or the margin clerk forcefully closed their position. The snowball effect in margin calls and stop loss orders was great enough to last several days.
None of this is surprising. However, we were quite surprised to see that net short positions of commercial traders rose substantially during this period. Typically they would be expected to cover their short positions at lower prices, mopping up the losses of retail investors.
This reveals several important changes to the gold and silver markets:
1) It took an enormous number of short positions added to move the market even on a weekend.
2) The gambit failed, as they were not able to cover these positions in volume after the dump. Nevertheless, as we have been expecting for several years, the commercial traders will be net long before the metals make new highs. But if they can't cover at lower prices, they will begin covering at higher prices as we saw when silver rose from $20 fall 2010 to $50 in spring 2011.
We suspect that the failure of the gold gambit is largely due to the unexpected surge in GLOBAL demand for physical metal. Premiums on bullion products are higher than they were during the 2008 crash, with even junk silver selling at $5-$6 over the paper spot price. This is unprecedented.
The consolidation in gold and silver over the last two years has been painful, especially for mining investors. However, with the prices of the metals at or below production costs, along with shortages of retail bullion products, and zero net long small investors, we are struggling to identify any more sellers. The summer season is typically weak for precious metals, and they could easily back and fill a base over the next six months, however the risk in accumulating physical metals in this price range is very low. We also believe that producing miners with cash holdings represent substantial value at this time.
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Caution Advised in Gold and Silver
Sun, 02 Sep 2012 02:35:00 GMT
Gold and especially silver have succumbed to a long a demoralizing correction over the last 12 to 18 months. The summer doldrums likely marked the bottom of this correction, and the metals have turn the corner higher. However, both gold and silver investors will likely have their resolve tested once again in the coming weeks before the metals are able to break higher.
Precious metals (GLD, SLV), and mining equities surged from their 2008 lows to their 2011 highs in reaction to massive monetary intervention, and an initial surge in inflationary expectations. Although interest rates have remained near zero, and real interest rates are clearly negative, precious metals investors have been disappointed by the ongoing global stagflationary wealth destruction, and the failure of further intervention by policy makers. The Federal Reserve has admitted that the US economy is weaker than desired, yet it has also continually disappointed in announcing a new quantitative easing as it seeks political justification.
The last two years of global policy makers kicking the can down the road, in conjunction with weaker demand from India, has created the environment for a severe correction in gold, silver, and miners. While it hasn't been the most severe in terms of percentage loss, it has likely been the most severe in terms of sentiment. With Europe, India, China, and the US all decelerating at a rapid pace, and the US fiscal cliff returning the political forefront, we believe that we are months away at the most from a turn in monetary policy. Verbal intervention has run its course, and real monetary intervention is a mathematical certainty.
Gold miners(GDX) bottomed in May, and are leading the metals. They are now overbought and could face a sharp correction before breaking out.
Gold and silver may already have begun pricing in future intervention, however commercial banks are not yet on board with the breakout in gold and silver. Net commercial short positions in both gold and silver, at a time when prices are near resistance levels and overbought are indicating that a short and severe correction could be imminent.
Silver has had an especially large spike in commercial short positions over the last three weeks.
The current commercial short positions in silver and gold must be reduced before the metals can break higher. In other words, commercial banks must cover the majority of their short positions. While they could cover as prices rise, history suggests that the most likely scenario is for the commercial banks to take down the price and cover at lower levels. This correction will likely coincide with the realization of a global recession/depression in 2013 and end with the realization of further monetary intervention.
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